Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 28.645989 31.894430 35.629550 40.309060 46.115620 53.229145 62.849667
2025-03-16 24.129731 28.205825 33.321283 40.444973 50.540111 65.146815 89.831637
2025-03-23 21.032468 25.442954 31.342562 40.266871 54.435949 78.500805 131.005899
2025-03-30 18.856996 23.416422 29.827829 40.214881 58.472935 94.893200 203.696252
2025-04-06 17.027001 21.543656 28.130883 39.376173 60.851345 110.421349 323.329862
2025-04-13 16.242908 21.016309 28.294061 41.572743 69.961311 152.132772 989.325001
2025-04-20 15.089279 19.780243 27.123428 41.083411 73.235818 183.745033 5156.061678
2025-04-27 14.262229 18.938030 26.452585 41.354628 78.566369 236.913428 NaN
2025-05-04 13.593591 18.264787 25.958021 41.844953 84.909132 321.625054 NaN
2025-05-11 12.956210 17.575071 25.335484 41.913925 90.234213 439.338885 NaN
2025-05-18 12.325857 16.839839 24.539361 41.424321 93.613131 586.870505 NaN
2025-05-25 11.856269 16.329682 24.092473 41.643257 99.911712 936.611984 NaN
2025-06-01 11.348718 15.728697 23.432098 41.276280 104.156424 1565.056544 NaN
2025-06-08 10.888660 15.177016 22.812387 40.902203 108.435238 3299.061950 NaN
2025-06-15 10.463967 14.657907 22.206475 40.455603 112.349216 12859.611662 NaN
2025-06-22 10.102800 14.225376 21.729876 40.265081 117.750663 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 9.704000 13.703824 21.031742 39.354741 118.701617 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 9.612799 13.715547 21.405264 41.509074 141.220227 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 9.300213 13.313711 20.892093 41.000265 145.651516 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 9.072201 13.051324 20.648049 41.259538 156.979829 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.876416 12.836085 20.484592 41.742055 171.897904 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 8.662856 12.576888 20.205292 41.807620 183.862636 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 8.424304 12.260366 19.778331 41.318471 189.712125 NaN NaN